Global Macro — September 19, 2026
Lower oil is easing the immediate inflation shock, but near-5% Treasury yields, synchronized central-bank tightening and large equity-fund outflows keep global financial conditions restrictive.
Read research 9 min
PERSONAL RESEARCH
Research workspace
Saved research, personal notes and comparisons of theses, risks and indicators.
Note storage
Saved reading and notes stay in this browser. Export your workspace to keep a copy.
Structural power is not wealth: identifying the actors that can change the system
A framework for separating capital, ownership, voting authority, physical flows and technological chokepoints—and a first map of BlackRock, NBIM, Trafigura, Glencore and ASML.
Read research 9 min
Sovereign capital is not one model: four ways public wealth transmits into markets and productive capacity
PIF, Mubadala, Temasek and Norway's GPFG deploy public wealth through different mandates and governance structures; portfolio size alone does not explain their structural effects.
Read research 9 min
Global Macro Daily — September 18, 2026
Lower oil is easing immediate inflation extreme downside risks while the Fed, BOE and BOJ keep global financing conditions restrictive; Japan, European gas and Gulf logistics reveal where the next cross-asset divergences sit.
Read research 12 min
Saudi Arabia: oil buffers, state-led diversification and the limits of substitution
Saudi Arabia is using hydrocarbon income, state capital and logistics redundancy to widen its productive base, but fiscal dependence, private-sector productivity, labour segmentation and Gulf geography still constrain the transition.
Read research 7 min
Global Wealth Flow Monitor — 18 September 2026
Foreign demand for U.S. liquidity persisted as long-term flows weakened, gold fund holdings reached a record, and higher policy rates raised the financing hurdle for the capital-intensive AI and infrastructure cycle.
Read research 9 min
AI agents are becoming an operating layer for knowledge work, but governance is becoming the binding constraint
Enterprise usage, privacy benchmarks and selective-autonomy research point to the same transition: the binding constraint is moving from model capability toward context control, continuous evaluation, permissions and reliable human escalation.
Read research 9 min
Cislunar infrastructure is shifting from mission support toward a service architecture
CAPSTONE, commercial lunar relays, LunaNet and new surface-infrastructure procurement show a shift toward reusable cislunar services, while power, logistics and recurring demand remain the binding constraints.
Read research 7 min
Global Macro Daily — September 17, 2026
Partial relief in Saudi export logistics has reduced the immediate crude-supply extreme downside risks, but Fed tightening keeps global financial conditions restrictive while Hormuz traffic remains severely impaired.
Read research 11 min
Global Macro, Markets & Political Risk — September 16, 2026
Saudi Arabia’s new loading route via Oman reduces the immediate risk of oil scarcity and eases yields at the margin, but a 10-year Treasury near 5% keeps global financing conditions restrictive ahead of the Fed and Copom decisions.
Read research 22 min
Electricity Systems in 2026: Generation Is Scaling Faster Than the Grid
Generation and storage are expanding faster than the networks that must connect, transmit and balance them, shifting scarcity toward grids, flexibility and electrical equipment.
Read research 8 min
Global Wealth Flow Monitor — 16 September 2026
Capital remains concentrated in U.S. financial markets while incremental productive investment shifts toward energy security, AI infrastructure and mineral processing.
Read research 11 min
COMPARISON
Compare research
Theses, risks and indicators from up to three publications, with the date of each assessment.